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– Nelson Mandela

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Q TASKS 1. Answer the following: a. Which forecasting model will you use? Justify your choice. b. What are the possible sources of error in your selected model? (i.e. – last year was a bull market; therefore, people had less disposable income…). c. Does your selected model meet the “good forecast” criteria from Chapter 15 of Operations Management? Explain your answer.

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Forecasting can be regarded as the process of foreseeing the future on the basis of present and past data and by trend analysis most commonly. 1. (a) The model of forecasting that will be used is exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing can be regarded as a more advanced time series forecasting form. Patterns of recurring and trends can be seized by exponential smoothing. This is attained by focusing on data that is more recent, smoothing out variations that pure randomness causes in the data often (Cachon & Terwiesch, 2017).